A2AD and the Naval Enterprise: Considerations for NAWCAD 2.

Keith Gordon, Robert Kavetsky, Dr. Elan Moritz, Dr. Marcus Jones, Billy Clark (2015)

A2AD and the Naval Enterprise: Considerations for NAWCAD 2.0

Abstract…………………………………………………………………..i

Preface…………………………………………….…………………….iii

Acknowlgements……………………………………………………viii

Author Biographies. ix

Acronyms……………………………………………………………….xii

List of Tables …………………………………………………………xvii

Executive Summary. xix

Chapter 1. 1

Introduction. 1

Definitions. 2

A2AD Risk:  High Consequence and Changing Likelihood. 4

A2AD Primer and the Chinese A2AD Scenario. 8

Summary. 11

Chapter 2. 14

Operational Context: A2AD / Counter-Intervention Micro-Economic Analyses  14

Current Budget Breakdown. 14

Current Trends. 19

Purchasing Power Parity. 22

U.S. Impact from Chinese Defense Budget 26

A2AD Micro-Economic Context 27

Conclusion. 30

Chapter 3. 34

The Use and Limitations of History. 39

An In-Depth Historical Case: Japan in the Interwar Era. 41

Reasoning from the Historical Case to China Today. 46

Chapter 4. 54

Strategic Scenario Planning. 54

A2AD Scenario Development 56

Technological Challenge. 60

Military Challenge. 61

A2AD in the Pacific:  China, and Counter-Intervention Preparations  62

Critical Questions for NAVAIR and NAWCAD.. 65

Opportunities for Collaboration. 67

Chapter 5. 72

Stakeholder Interviews:  A2AD Perceptions, ETC Analyses. 72

Background: 72

Survey. 76

Conclusions. 80

Chapter 6. 89

NAWCAD 2.0. 89

NAVAIR and NAWCAD Background. 89

The Environment in which NAWCAD Exists. 90

OODA “Loops” and NAWCAD 2.0. 94

Summary. 100

Chapter 7. 102

Comments on Tools for Future Studies (like A2AD) 102

Assessment and Concept Evaluation Capability (ACE Tool Kit) ….116

Chapter 8. 128

Conclusion. 128

Bibliography. 137

APPENDIX 1………………………………………………………….159